10-year Bitcoin Model Approves Buying BTC At $100k Since Time Does...

A new Bitcoin model shows long-term returns remain in the 300% range regardless of an investor’s entry price. Will shifting global liquidity change the outcome this time?

Power-law modeling shows Bitcoin generates strong long-term returns regardless of precise entry timing.

Global liquidity sits far above prior-cycle levels, supporting a more favorable macroeconomic backdrop.

Bitcoin currently trades at an unusually deep discount relative to its liquidity trends, with its fair value near $170,000.

A new Bitcoin (BTC) simulation suggests that long-term investors may be overly concerned about timing their BTC purchases. In a detailed 10-year model, Bitcoin researcher Sminston With tested how a hypothetical investor deploying $100,000 today might perform under three different entry points: buying at $94,000 price, buying 20% cheaper, or buying 20% more expensive.

The model then projected Bitcoin’s price using the median power-law trend and assumed the investor withdrew 10% of their holdings each year to save or spend.

To further stress-test the outcomes, the study included three exit scenarios: selling at the projected median price in 2035, selling at 20% above it, or selling at 20% below it.

The results were consistently profitable. Even the “unluckiest” path, i.e., buying 20% above $94,000 and selling 20% below the projected median, still returned 300% on the remaining holdings after a decade of steady withdrawals. In total savings, that same investor would end up with 7.7 times the initial capital.

Meanwhile, investors who entered 20% below $94,000 saw final totals ranging from $1.15 million to $1.47 million, depending on their exit. Buying at $94,000 produced outcomes between $924,000 and $1.18 million,

According to the researcher, the takeaway remained simple: While timing can boost returns, Bitcoin’s long-term power-law trajectory does most of the work. With wrote:

Source: CoinTelegraph