Crypto: 6 Polymarket Traders Net $1m On Us-iran Strike, Spark Insider...

The newly created Polymarket wallets placed bets on the timing of a US strike against Iran, buying shares hours before the first explosions were reported in Tehran.

Six Polymarket traders earned roughly $1 million after accurately betting that the United States would strike Iran before the end of February, triggering insider trading suspicions.

The six wallets were all created in February and placed nearly all of their activity on contracts predicting the timing of a potential US attack, Bloomberg reported, citing data shared by analytics firm Bubblemaps SA. In several cases, shares were purchased only hours before explosions were first reported in Tehran, with some contracts acquired for around $0.10, per the report.

The timing drew attention from onchain investigators, who said the pattern resembles behavior previously linked to suspected insider activity on prediction markets.

“In cases involving war or conflict, information can circulate within a broader circle before becoming public,” Nicolas Vaiman, chief executive of Bubblemaps, reportedly said. “Combined with the fact that Polymarket generally only requires a wallet to trade, which allows for a high level of anonymity, this can create incentives for informed participants to act early,” he added.

Cointelegraph reached out to Polymarket for comment, but had not received a response by publication

Related: Polymarket user gains $400K betting on ZachXBT investigation

During the recent escalation, more than $529 million flowed into strike-related contracts on Polymarket. The specific Feb. 28 contract alone attracted roughly $90 million in trading volume, making it the most popular strike date among traders. A Jan. 31 scenario followed with about $42 million.

Notably, one of the flagged accounts had previously lost money on an earlier prediction before placing a larger wager that later returned more than $170,000, suggesting that the trades do not by themselves prove wrongdoing. Washington had also publicly warned of possible military action for weeks, drawing speculators to the platform.

There have been more instances of insider-trading allegations on Polymarket. This week, a small cluster of crypto wallets earned more than $1.2 million betting on a contract tied to an onchain investigation into DeFi platform Axiom, shortly before investigator ZachXBT published claims that an Axiom employee and associates had been engaged in insider trading since early 2025.

Source: CoinTelegraph