Crypto: Bitcoin Futures, Options Market Flash Caution Even As BTC Chases $70k
Bitcoin bulls are chasing after $70,000 but cautious signals from the futures and derivatives market could explain why success remains elusive.
Bitcoin derivatives show persistent fear despite the current rally toward $70,000, as seen by futures premiums being pinned well below neutral levels.
The markets’ cautious stance stems from broad risk-aversion and lingering concerns over institutional BTC liquidations and Bitcoin network security.
Bitcoin (BTC) retested the $70,000 level on Wednesday, recovering from Tuesday’s low of $62,500. While inflows into Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) helped stabilize market sentiment, the momentum failed to restore confidence within the BTC derivatives markets. Traders remain concerned that underlying factors are preventing a sustained rally toward $75,000.
US-listed Bitcoin ETFs recorded $764 million in net inflows over two days, partially offsetting the $1.2 billion in outflows seen during the previous eight trading days. These large movements are typically attributed to institutional activity, suggesting strong demand when prices dip below $65,000.
Despite this demand, the appetite for leveraged bullish positions in BTC futures has dropped sharply.
The annualized premium for Bitcoin futures relative to spot markets sat at 2% on Thursday, remaining well below the 5% neutral threshold. Bullish momentum has been largely absent since Jan. 31, the date Bitcoin surrendered the $85,000 support level after holding it for over nine months. Data from the options market further indicates that professional traders are prioritizing the avoidance of downside exposure.
Bitcoin put (sell) options traded at a 14% premium compared to equivalent call (buy) instruments on Thursday. In a neutral market environment, this indicator typically fluctuates between -6% and +6%, signaling that fear remains a dominant force. Although this skew metric has improved from the 28% "panic" levels recorded on Tuesday, the recovery to $70,000 has done little to shift the cautious outlook of derivatives traders.
Recently, a number of unproven theories have been proposed to explain Bitcoin’s 32% decline over seven weeks. This downward trend began following the Oct. 10, 2025, market crash, which eliminated $19 billion in leveraged positions across the cryptocurrency sector. This volatility coincided with US President Donald Trump announcing a 100% increase in import tariffs on Chinese goods.
Following that event, Binance reportedly provided $283
Source: CoinTelegraph
