Latest: Bitcoin-gold Correlation Signals At Least 50% BTC Price Gains By March

Bitcoin may take the lead over gold in 2026 as liquidity expansion and cycle fractals point to a rally that can take BTC price to $144,000.

Bitcoin’s (BTC) 52-week correlation with gold reached zero for the first time since mid-2022 and may turn negative by the end of January.

BTC–gold divergence has historically preceded strong Bitcoin rallies.

Liquidity trends and cycle fractals point to BTC leading the way with a $144,000–$150,000 price target.

In the past four comparable instances, Bitcoin rallied by an average of 56% within roughly two months after its correlation with gold turned negative.

Bitcoin broke this pattern in May 2021, when it fell roughly 26% instead of rallying.

Back then, Tesla had suspended Bitcoin payments, while China had intensified its crackdown on mining and trading, triggering forced deleveraging across the market and overriding the historical correlation signal.

The current setup looks bullish due to several macro tailwinds, including rising global liquidity (as tracked by the global M2 supply) and the end of the Federal Reserve’s quantitative tightening.

“Historically, Bitcoin bull markets have aligned with periods of increased global liquidity,” said Matt Hougan, the global head of research at Bitwise Asset Management, in their latest report, adding:

Under the same macro conditions, gold surged 65% in 2025, while Bitcoin’s returns were almost flat. But, according to Hougan, BTC will take the lead over gold in 2026.

Source: CoinTelegraph