Crypto: Bitcoin Is Now Most Undervalued Versus Gold: Will BTC Price Rebound?

BTC price surged nearly 150% after a similar BTC–gold undervaluation signal in late 2022, highlighting how extreme discounts have preceded major rallies.

Bitcoin (BTC) slipped into its deepest undervaluation against gold (XAU) on Friday, reviving expectations of a potential capital rotation away from the precious metal and back into cryptocurrency markets in 2026.

Bitcoin is at a record undervaluation versus gold, a level historically linked to major BTC bottoms.

Past gold-led cycles favor a bullish outlook for BTC price in 2026.

The undervalued reading came from the BTC–XAU ratio’s Z-score, a metric that measures how far the current ratio deviates from its long-term average.

A reading below −2 indicated that Bitcoin was trading more than two standard deviations below its historical norm compared to gold, which is extremely rare. In this case, BTC entered the model’s lowest band for the first time on record.

Historically, moves in the BTC/XAU ratio toward the −2 standard deviation zone preceded extended periods of Bitcoin outperforming gold, as shown in the Power-Law bands graph below.

“Everything points to Bitcoin massively outperforming Gold over the coming months,” said Julius, the analyst who conceptualized the BTC/Gold Power-Law bands and the Z-score oscillator

In the past, the Z-score’s dips toward the −2 standard deviation zone marked major Bitcoin bottoms.

For instance, a BTC/XAU undervaluation signal in November 2022 preceded a roughly 150% BTC price rally over the following year.

Source: CoinTelegraph