Bitcoin Looks Increasingly Like It Did In 2022: Can BTC Price Avoid...

Onchain data points to a major Bitcoin price drop in the making, while a bearish technical structure projected a drop to $68,000.

Bitcoin (BTC) is flashing early signs of a deeper correction, as the latest recovery pauses at $93,000. New analysis shows Bitcoin’s “market structure” increasingly resembles the first quarter of 2022, which marked the beginning of the bear market.

Bitcoin's onchain structure mirrors early 2022, risking a deep bear market if key levels are lost.

Bitcoin has dropped toward and found support near its True Market Mean, currently at $81,500 said Onchain data provider Glassnode.

The True Market Mean, or the Active-Investor Price, represents the cost basis of all non-dormant coins, excluding miners.

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“This level often marks the dividing line between a mild bearish phase and a deep bear market,” Glassnode said in its latest Week On-chain report, adding;

The chart above shows that the BTC/USD pair traded above this level between Jan. 22, 2022, and May 5, 2022. When BTC dropped below this level on May 6, the price lost a further 61%, bottoming at $15,500 in November of that year.

The resemblance is corroborated by a Supply Quantiles Cost Basis model, which tracks the entry price of the largest coin clusters. Since mid-November, Bitcoin’s price has fallen below the 0.75 quantile, now trading near $96,100, placing more than 25% of supply underwater.

This has created a highly “fragile balance between the risk of top-buyer capitulation and the potential for seller exhaustion to form a bottom,” Glassnode wrote, adding:

Source: CoinTelegraph