Crypto: Bitcoin Prediction Markets Say $100k BTC Price Out Of Reach For Now
Bitcoin bull market optimism has suffered since the October crash, as chances of a short-term BTC price rally above $100,000 appeared to be fading.
Bitcoin (BTC) may remain pinned below $100,000 for the first half of 2026 as the market lacks bullish catalysts amid macroeconomic uncertainties.
BTC price has a less than 10% chance of retaking $100,000 before Feb. 1, according to prediction markets.
Traders predict that Bitcoin is unlikely to see $100,000 before June.
Bitcoin’s price will likely drop below Strategy’s cost basis.
The majority of traders on Polymarket and Kalshi don’t expect Bitcoin to return to a six-figure price over the next seven days.
As of Jan. 22, Polymarket bettors are pricing in about 6% odds of BTC crossing $100,000 before Jan. 31. Kalshi sets 7% odds of BTC touncing the $100,000 psychological level before the end of January.
Bitcoin’s high for 2026 sits at $97,900, reached on Jan. 14, and the last time the BTC/USD pair traded above $100,000 was on Nov. 13.
Related: Bitcoiners reject quantum computing fears as cause of price slump
The last time BTC/USD dropped below $100,000, it reclaimed the level after 93 days following a 25.5% drawdown.
Source: CoinTelegraph
