Bitcoin Price Action, Investor Sentiment Point To Bullish December
An emerging bullish Bitcoin trend challenges a decade-long bearish seasonal pattern. Will BTC hit new highs before the end of 2025?
Bitcoin (BTC) entered the new month with a statistical headwind it has never overcome: every time November ended in the red, BTC struggled to turn bullish in December. Yet this year’s structure looks materially different, with momentum, liquidity rotation, and cycle deviations pushing against what has been a 100% bearish seasonal setup.
Bitcoin’s bearish December period could change with reduced leverage, and price reclaiming a key technical level, hinting at a more stable setup.
Macroeconomic liquidity and M2 velocity are diverging from Bitcoin’s buying activity, which is usually seen in the middle stages of a bull market.
Bitcoin’s cycle structure has evolved, with spot ETF inflows and global liquidity dynamics altering the traditional halving-based cycles.
Bitcoin returns in Q4 have long reflected strong seasonality, with a weak December performance typically following a negative November. Yet market structure has somewhat diverged sharply from past cycles in 2025.
BTC’s price has returned above its monthly rolling volume-weighted average price (rVWAP) levels, signalling controlled distribution and high-timeframe trend adoption. A significant drop in open interest from $94 billion to $60 billion has normalized or reset the market without killing spot inflows, creating a cleaner base for continuation.
From a technical standpoint, deep liquidity clusters have migrated from November’s downside liquidation, totalling around $1 billion near $80,000, to the upside inefficient clusters. At the moment, $3 billion in cumulative short positions would be liquidated at $96,000 and over $7 billion once BTC hits $100,000.
Thus, these factors do suggest that December could be mispriced relative to its historical probability curve of Bitcoin’s performance.
Still, the current momentum can be deceiving. Cointelegraph noted that the taker buy/sell ratio near 1.17 showed urgency, not depth, and often appeared when positioning is crowded. Anonymous market analyst EndGame Macro said that it reflected aggressive buys but not necessarily sustainable accumulation.
Source: CoinTelegraph
