Bitcoin ‘risk Off’ Signals Fire Despite Traders’ View That...

Bitcoin’s bounce evaporated as the weekly close approaches and traders say multiple risk-off metrics point to a high correction risk for BTC. Is $100,000 by the end of 2025 possible?

Bitcoin (BTC) may be holding above $90,000, but data implied that its price is still flashing a significant risk-off signal. CryptoQuant’s multi-metric risk-off oscillator remained near the “High-Risk” zone, a level that historically precedes corrections and diminishes the probability of a sustained bullish trend.

Bitcoin’s risk-off signal was positioned near “High-Risk” territory, which has previously indicated a bearish period.

BTC’s Profit–Loss sentiment has hit a rare -3 extreme, signalling a structural correction.

BTC’s -32% drawdown placed it between a correction and capitulation zone, which may prolong the decline between $90,000 and $80,000.

CryptoQuant’s Risk-Off model incorporates six metrics — downside volatility, upside volatility, exchange inflows, funding rates, futures open interest and market cap behavior — to produce a data-driven assessment of market fragility. With the oscillator near 60 or the High-Risk zone, correction risk remains elevated.

Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr also noted that the profit/loss score has dropped to -3, reflecting an extreme concentration of unprofitable UTXOs. Historically, this level aligned with bearish regimes and extended cooling phases. The current -32% drawdown exceeded normal cycle pullbacks (-20%–25%) but remains above capitulation thresholds (-50% to -70%), placing Bitcoin in a vulnerable “intermediate zone.”

Adler said that as long as macroeconomic conditions and onchain profitability fail to improve, the probability of continued downside remains high, despite the price stabilizing near $90,000.

At this stage, onchain data from Glassnode offered a small silver lining. The analytics platform noted that Bitcoin’s latest drawdown triggered the largest spike in realized losses since the FTX collapse in 2022, overwhelmingly driven by short-term holders (STHs).

However, long-term holder (LTH) losses remain comparatively muted, a dynamic that historically reflects core holder resilience and has sometimes cushioned deeper capitulation in past cycles.

Source: CoinTelegraph