Bitcoin Slump To $86k Brings BTC Closer To ‘max Pain’ But Great...

Analysts say Bitcoin is nearly in its “max pain” zone as the cost basis of BlackRock’s IBIT and Strategy’s massive BTC treasury draws near.

A Bitwise analyst outlined the $84,000 to $73,000 region as the likely “max pain” capitulation range for Bitcoin.

Cost-basis levels of BlackRock’s IBIT and Strategy’s BTC treasury could heavily influence liquidity flows.

Bitwise European head of research André Dragosch said Bitcoin’s “max pain” zone resides between two critical cost-basis levels: BlackRock’s IBIT at $84,000 and MicroStrategy’s near $73,000.

Dragosch argued that a final cycle bottom is most likely to form somewhere between these levels, describing them as “fire-sale” prices that represent a full reset of market positioning.

The cost basis of IBIT, BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF), reflected the average price at which the ETF acquired its BTC holdings. When the price approaches this threshold, sentiment often deteriorates because ETF holders begin to evaluate whether continued drawdowns justify redemptions.

This dynamic is already visible as IBIT posted its worst single-day outflows of $523 million on Tuesday, contributing to $3.3 billion in total ETF outflows over the past month, or 3.5% of total assets under management (AUM).

Strategy is currently at a more fragile point. Its net asset value (NAV) recently fell below 1, signaling that the market now values the company’s equity at a discount to the underlying Bitcoin it holds, historically a sign of tightening liquidity and risk aversion. A retest of its $73,000 cost basis could further stress sentiment and trigger heavier de-risking if macroeconomic conditions worsen.

Related: 10-year Bitcoin model approves buying BTC at $100K since time does ‘the heavy lifting’

Data from CryptoQuant noted that the December Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is unusually uncertain after a government shutdown delayed key labor data, leaving the Fed with limited visibility. Rate-cut expectations have fallen to 41.8% on Thursday, and minutes show a divided committee balancing persistent 3% inflation with the risks of premature easing.

Source: CoinTelegraph