Bitcoin Supply Held At Loss Rises To 2024 Level: Can BTC Recover...

With a third of Bitcoin held at a loss, onchain data suggested that the market may be nearing a critical reset phase. Will BTC end the year above its range highs?

Around one-third of Bitcoin’s supply is now held at a loss, levels last seen in September 2024.

Onchain metrics show rising short-term losses but moderate selling pressure overall.

Technical indicators suggest potential for recovery after consolidation near $98,000–$103,000.

The ongoing Bitcoin (BTC) correction has pushed roughly 33% of the total circulating supply into a loss, according to CryptoQuant data, a level last seen in September 2024. While such figures may appear alarming, historical precedents suggest that similar phases often coincide with seller exhaustion rather than a full-blown market breakdown.

Nearly one-third of holders are now at a loss, and this concentration of unrealized losses has historically marked pivotal points in prior bullish cycles. These thresholds tend to form when liquidity stress peaks, a stage where most sellers have already acted, allowing markets to reset structurally.

Losses among short-term holders (STH) have also intensified. The seven-day short-term holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR), a metric that measures whether coins moved onchain were sold at a profit or loss, currently stands at 0.9904. Readings below 1.0 indicate that most coins are being sold at a loss, suggesting growing pressure from short-term traders.

To put that in perspective, the SOPR’s Z-score, which measures how far current readings deviate from historical norms, is now at −1.29. This implies moderate selling pressure. By comparison, during the August 2024 correction, the same indicator fell to 0.9752 with a Z-score of −2.43, marking a much deeper phase of capitulation.

Overall, the data suggested a market caught between patience and capitulation. If prices remain under pressure, long-term holders may begin taking profits to safeguard their gains, while newer investors may sell once they recover their costs, potentially capping rebounds.

However, if fear reaches an extreme and selling pressure fades, these very conditions could help form a durable bottom and reset sentiment for the next accumulation phase.

Source: CoinTelegraph