Bitcoin Valuation Metric Projects 96% Chance Of BTC Price Recovery...

A similar setup in 2023 preceded a 340% Bitcoin rally, reinforcing the argument that BTC is undervalued at current prices.

Bitcoin (BTC) has been in a downtrend since early October, with the price dropping below its network value, suggesting a possible recovery in 2026.

Bitcoin price dropped below its fair value, a setup that has historically preceded positive one-year returns.

Strengthening network activity suggests robust adoption beyond speculation.

Bitcoin spot CVD flipped positive, signalling renewed buy-side activity.

Bitcoin price is trading 31.4% below its $126,000 all-time high reached on Oct. 6, according to data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView.

This drawdown has seen the BTC price drop below its network value (Metcalfe) for the first time in two years, a setup that has historically predicted Bitcoin recoveries with accuracy, according to economist Timothy Peterson.

Related: Bitcoin battles $50K price target as Fed adds $13.5B overnight liquidity

Bitcoin's Metcalfe Value is the theoretical fair price derived from Metcalfe’s Law, which states that the BTC price rises in correlation with the growth of active addresses and transactions, i.e., network value. This means that the more wallets and transactions there are, the higher the fair price of Bitcoin.

This divergence signals Bitcoin is undervalued relative to its expanding network (e.g., active addresses), often after speculative excess.

Source: CoinTelegraph