Bitcoin's 2-year Trend Is About To Collapse: Will Bulls Defend $90k?

Bitcoin lost multiple critical support areas as data show short-term investors holding on to capitulation-level losses, raising fears of a deeper breakdown in BTC price.

Bitcoin (BTC) broke below its June support near $98,000 on Thursday, marking its first clear lower high–lower low structure on the daily chart since February. The decline deepened on Friday as BTC slid to $94,500, bringing it within striking distance of the $93,500 yearly open, a level that would fully erase its gains for 2025.

Bitcoin is at risk of its first weekly close below the 50-week SMA since 2023, breaking a two-year uptrend.

Data shows all major short-term realized price bands have flipped into resistance.

Short-term holders are showing near-capitulation losses of 12.79%.

After defending the 50-week simple moving average (SMA) last week with a sharp weekend rebound, Bitcoin is once again on track to close below the indicator, unless the price climbs back above $101,000 by Sunday.

This level has acted as a structural support since September 2023, defining a two-year uptrend. A confirmed weekly close beneath it would not only invalidate that trend but also suggest that BTC’s bullish momentum has weakened enough for a broader correction to take shape.

Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr noted the severity of the breakdown, saying, “there is no support left in the market, all key metrics have flipped into resistance,” after BTC lost $100,000 on Nov. 14.

Data shows multiple short-term holder (STH) realized price bands, once reliable bounce zones, now forming overhead barriers. The STH 1W–1M realized price near $102,400, and the STH 1M–3M band around $98,000 have both inverted following more than $1.1 billion in liquidations.

However, CryptoQuant CEO Ki-Young Ju highlighted a possible stabilizing zone: the six-to-12 month holder cost basis near $94,000. A bounce from this level could mark a technical floor, but a decisive higher-timeframe close below it risks accelerating losses and confirming a bear market.

Source: CoinTelegraph