Crypto: Bitcoin’s $60k Crash May Mark Halfway Point Of Bear Market: Kaiko

Analysts are split on whether the drop represents a cycle low or a pause before further downside.

Bitcoin’s sharp correction at the start of the month may represent a critical “halfway point” in the current bear market, according to Kaiko Research.

Bitcoin (BTC) fell to $59,930 on Friday, marking its lowest level since October 2024, before the re-election of US President Donald Trump, according to TradingView data.

The decline suggests the market has moved out of the euphoric post-halving phase and into what Kaiko described as a historically typical bear market period that lasts about 12 months before a new accumulation phase begins.

In a research note shared with Cointelegraph on Monday, Kaiko said Bitcoin’s 32% crash was the most significant correction since the 2024 Bitcoin halving and may mark the “halfway point” of the current bear market.

“Analysis of on-chain metrics and comparative performance across tokens reveals a market approaching critical technical support levels that will determine whether the four-year cycle framework remains intact,” Kaiko said.

Related: Trend Research cuts ETH exposure by over 400K as liquidation risk rises

Kaiko’s report highlighted several emerging onchain bear market signals, including a 30% drop in aggregate spot crypto trading volume across the 10 leading centralized exchanges, from around $1 trillion in October 2025 down to $700 billion in November.

At the same time, combined Bitcoin and Ether (ETH) futures open interest declined from $29 billion to $25 billion over the past week, a 14% reduction that Kaiko said reflects ongoing deleveraging.

While Bitcoin has realigned with the historical four-year halving cycle since the beginning of the year, determining the depth of the current bear market is complex, as “many catalysts that fueled BTC’s rally to $126,000 are still in effect,” said Shawn Young, chief analyst, MEXC Research.

Source: CoinTelegraph