Next Super Rally Could Depend On This Key Data Point Bitcoin’s

Long-term Bitcoin holders sold nearly $300 billion worth of BTC in 2025, but as this sell pressure declines, a bullish outlook for 2026 has emerged.

Bitcoin’s long-term holders (LTHs) went through one of the most aggressive distribution phases on record in 2025. While the scale of selling rattled the market, onchain data analysis suggests that this pressure may be fading, possibly outlining the next bullish period for BTC price.

Long-term holders distributed roughly $300 billion in BTC in 2025, marking a historic supply reset.

Heavy LTH selling has occurred near cycle peaks or during structural transitions, not at the start of new downtrends.

With selling pressure stalling, the next phase may hinge on how early the long-term holder supply stabilizes.

The amount of Bitcoin (BTC) that had remained unmoved for at least two years moved onchain sharply in 2025. Nearly $300 billion worth of Bitcoin that had been dormant for over a year re-entered circulation. The 30 days between November 15 and December 14 2025, marked one of the heaviest long-term holder (LTH) distribution periods in more than five years.

Since 2019, sharp declines in long-term holder (LTH) supply have rarely appeared in isolation. They have surfaced during phases when Bitcoin’s trend was already under strain, either approaching exhaustion or undergoing a structural shift.

In 2018, the LTH supply fell from 13 million BTC to 12 million BTC, with selling intensity peaking when the 30-day distribution reached 1.08 million BTC in December. At that point, Bitcoin had already spent months declining. Price bottomed near $3,500 in February 2019, before stabilizing and rallying to $11,000 by mid-year, illustrating how heavy LTH selling could precede recovery rather than mark its end.

The 2020–2021 cycle unfolded differently. LTH supply dropped from 13.7 million BTC to 11.65 million BTC, while Bitcoin climbed from $14,000 to $61,000. The 30-day distribution peak of 891,000 BTC did not immediately halt the rally.

Instead, selling persisted as prices rose, gradually eroding upside momentum before the cycle ultimately rolled over, a reminder that LTH distribution can accompany expansion before defining its limits.

Source: CoinTelegraph