Global liquidity is set to deteriorate sharply, according to Russell Thompson, chief investment officer at crypto asset manager Hilbert Group (HILB), who said even a quick geopolitical resolution in Iran is unlikely to sustain a rally in risk assets without policy support. Liquidity conditions have stabilized in parts of the financial sector following the rollout of the reserve maturity program (RMP), Thompson said, but a broader tightening of 20%–25% is approaching, a significant drag that could leave bitcoin BTC$76,109.58 struggling in the near term. "Even with a resolution quickly in Iran, I do not believe that risk assets will rally for any sustainable time without outside help," Thompson said in the report published last week. Thompson said he expects U.S. policymakers to respond. He pointed to likely measures including reform of the supplementary leverage ratio (SLR), a sizable drawdown of the Treasury General Account (TGA) without offsetting Federal Reserve bill issuance, and a series of rate cuts under a potential new Fed chair. The SLR is a banking regulation that sets how much capital large banks must hold against their total leverage. The TGA is the U.S. Treasury’s main cash account at the Federal Reserve. When the Treasury draws down the TGA (spends money from it), liquidity is effectively injected into the financial system; when it builds the TGA, liquidity is drained. Bitcoin’s performance over the past six months has been marked by sharp volatility, a clear shift from late-2025 exuberance to a more fragile, macro-driven market. After hitting an all-time high above $126,000 in October 2025, bitcoin entered a sustained drawdown through the end of the year and into early 2026. By February, prices had fallen to roughly $63,000, a decline of about 50% from the peak, amid a broader crypto market sell-off and tightening financial conditions. This period was characterized by weaker demand, exchange-traded fund (ETF) outflows and a more risk-off macro b