While macro pain and Iran war uncertainty drag Bitcoin below $79K, fixed-income market outflows could trigger a medium-term Bitcoin rebound. Bitcoin (BTC) faced a sharp contraction on Friday following a rejection at $82,000 the prior day. Recent price movements closely resembled the US small-capitalization stock index, hinting that macroeconomic factors are the leading drivers behind the nosedive below $79,000. The anxiety sparked a sell-off in fixed-income markets. Counterintuitively, this may help Bitcoin embark on a sustained bull run over the next few weeks. The US small-capitalization stock index excludes the 1,000 largest companies, avoiding the heavy concentration of tech stocks. More importantly, these stocks carry a higher risk due to smaller relative earnings and a lower financial capacity to survive worsening market conditions. Russell 2000 Index futures (left) vs Bitcoin/USD (right). TradingView Moreover, the cost of capital for smaller companies is often higher, making them more sensitive to interest rate trends. The strong correlation between Bitcoin and the Russell 2000 Index indicates that Bitcoin is not currently being valued as a hedge, but rather as a risk-on asset. Bitcoin perpetual futures annualized funding rate. Laevitas