Ethereum’s ongoing downtrend against Bitcoin mirrors the bearish structure seen in 2024–2025, raising the risk of another 40% decline. Ethereum’s native token, Ether (ETH), has fallen more than 35% against Bitcoin (BTC) over the past year, and the downtrend may still have further to go. ETH/BTC remains stuck below a multi-year descending trend line that has capped every breakout attempt since 2022, including one that preceded the nearly 70% decline between 2024 and 2025. A similar setup now appears to be taking shape again. After retesting the same trend line in August 2025, ETH/BTC was rejected near a confluence of resistance that included the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level and the 50-month exponential moving average (50-month EMA, red). The pair has since turned lower and slipped back below its 20-month EMA (green) support near 0.034 BTC, a sign that sellers continue to dominate the trend. The next major downside target for 2026 comes in around 0.0176 BTC if the weakness persists. This level, down about 40% from current rates, aligns with the 2020 cycle bottom. Exchange data points to persistent sell-side risk for Ether.