Crypto trading has cooled in early 2026, and Wall Street analysts are racing to adjust their forecasts before companies report first-quarter earnings. New research from Barclays and Oppenheimer shows multiple analysts are reaching similar conclusions, a few weeks into the second quarter. Expectations are coming down across the sector as trading volumes weaken and earlier projections look too optimistic. Barclays took the most direct step, downgrading Coinbase (COIN) and warning that “global crypto trading activity has declined to a level not seen since the end of 2023.” The bank added that “absent a resurgence in near-term crypto trading activity, we see profitability under pressure at Coinbase.” The slowdown is visible in the data. Coinbase’s March trading volume marked “the lowest volume month since September 2024,” Barclays wrote, with April showing “no signs of improvement.” For the first quarter, the bank estimates volumes fell roughly 30% from the prior quarter. Coinbase and other exchanges charge fees on each transaction they facilitate, meaning lower volumes will lead to less revenue. The mechanics are straightforward. When markets turn quiet, many traders step back. A retail user who once traded weekly during a rally may stop altogether when prices flatten. Multiply that behavior across millions of accounts, and exchange volumes drop quickly. That matters because transaction fees remain the main revenue driver for most crypto platforms. Barclays underscored this risk, saying its forecast for Coinbase’s adjusted EBITDA is about 24% below the Street, driven largely by weaker spot trading and retail activity. Crypto prices have pulled back in the first quarter, with the average price of major tokens falling sharply quarter-over-quarter. Bitcoin lost over 22% of its value in the first quarter of this year, while ether was down 29%.