Did Bitcoin's 4-year Cycle Break, And Is The Bull Market Really Over?

Bitcoin ETFs, corporate treasuries, and macro tailwinds are challenging BTC’s traditional four-year cycle, which could result in new all-time highs in 2026.

ETFs, treasuries, and macro tailwinds may snap Bitcoin’s four-year boom-and-bust pattern.

A bearish phase should not be ruled out before new all-time highs.

Bitcoin (BTC) has historically moved in four-year cycles tied to its halving events, with prices typically peaking 12-18 months after each supply cut before sliding into a prolonged bear market.

This time was no different. Bitcoin peaked near $126,200 in October, exactly eighteen months after the April 2024 halving, before declining by more than 30%.

The trend aligns with the early stages of past bearish phases, prompting veteran analysts such as Peter Brandt to see Bitcoin falling toward $25,000 in the coming months.

João Wedson, founder of onchain analytics firm Alphractal, pointed to the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) Trend Signal, a metric signaling the end of Bitcoin’s bull market.

Historically, SOPR marked market turning points by tracking shifts between profit-taking and loss-driven selling.

In bull markets, SOPR stayed above 1 as coins were sold at a profit, often preceding local tops. Near the bottom, it fell toward or below 1, signaling a realization of loss.

A sustained recovery above 1 later marked easing sell pressure and past rebounds.

Source: CoinTelegraph