Crypto: Dollar-cost Averaging Bitcoin Is Safest Strategy For Long-term...

Backtested data and forward-looking models found that dollar-cost averaging Bitcoin buys is the best way to invest in BTC. Will the strategy work in the next bull market?

Smart investors adjust their strategy during bear markets and 50% drawdowns like the one seen in Bitcoin (BTC) over the last 5 months. The strategy, known as dollar-cost averaging (DCA), involves investing the same amount at regular intervals regardless of market conditions.

Historical market cycle data and forward-looking BTC price simulations provide a clearer view of how these steady investment patterns develop across different entry periods and time horizons.

A $250 weekly Bitcoin purchase starting in January 2021 resulted in $67,500 invested over a five-year period. Based on DCA simulation data, the strategy accumulated 1.65097905 BTC at an average purchase price of $40,884.

At the current Bitcoin price near $71,000, that 1.65097905 BTC is valued at roughly $120,518, representing a $53,018 gain (76%) on the invested capital. When Bitcoin traded for $100,000, the holdings were worth about $165,098, while at the cycle peak near $126,000 in October 2025, the same amount reached $208,023.

A shorter accumulation window illustrates how entry timing changes the early outcome while the strategy continues building exposure. A $250 weekly DCA beginning January 2024 results in $28,500 invested, accumulating 0.36863166 BTC with an average purchase price of $77,312.

At the current price of $71000, the amount is valued at around $26,909, a –6% unrealized loss. At $100,000, the holdings had risen to $36,863, while a $126,000 cycle high valued the Bitcoin to $46,448.

In a February X, Swan Bitcoin analyst Adam Livingston compared a similar DCA approach against equities over the past five years. A $100 weekly allocation produced $42,508 in Bitcoin versus $37,470 in S&P 500 (SPX), representing 62.9% and 43.6% returns, respectively.

Livingston noted that purchasing Bitcoin consistently during drawdowns has historically produced stronger cumulative returns despite the price volatility.

Related: Bitcoin’s bullish momentum accelerates but topping $78K remains a challenge

Source: CoinTelegraph