Fed Rate Cut May Pump Stocks But Bitcoin Options Call Sub-$100k In...

Federal Reserve monetary policy could benefit stocks, but BTC options show the short-term odds of Bitcoin rallying to $100,000 remain slim.

BTC derivatives pricing indicates weak conviction in a move above $100,000, reflecting macroeconomic uncertainty and Bitcoin’s underperformance compared to gold.

Despite improved liquidity from Federal Reserve actions, whales remain cautious, signaling skepticism toward a durable Bitcoin breakout.

Bitcoin (BTC) derivatives markets are becoming increasingly skeptical that the cryptocurrency can sustain bullish momentum, despite the shift toward an expansionist monetary policy by the US Federal Reserve. Traders remain wary of risk aversion amid uncertain economic conditions and Bitcoin’s continued underperformance relative to gold.

The Fed’s split decision on Wednesday to cap interest rates at 3.75% was widely expected, and Fed Chair Jerome Powell struck a restrained tone during the press conference following the committee meeting. Powell highlighted the ongoing risks tied to labor market weakness and stubborn inflation. Two Fed members, however, voted to keep rates at 4%, an unusually sharp divergence for a committee that typically shows strong internal alignment.

More notable was the Fed’s announcement that it will begin purchasing short-dated government bonds to “help manage liquidity levels.” The initial $40 billion program authorized on Wednesday marks a significant reversal from the past couple of years, which were characterized by a steady drawdown of the Fed’s balance sheet, culminating in the current $6.6 trillion after a peak of $9 trillion in 2022.

This added liquidity increases the cash banks can lend, supporting credit growth, boosting business investment and encouraging consumer borrowing during periods when economic momentum is slowing across the economy.

The $100,000 BTC call (buy) option implies a 70% probability that Bitcoin will remain at or below $100,000 by Jan. 30, according to the Black & Scholes model.

To secure the right to acquire Bitcoin at a fixed $100,000 on Jan. 30, buyers must pay a $3,440 premium upfront. For comparison, the same call option traded at $12,700 just one month earlier. The instrument effectively serves as insurance and expires worthless if Bitcoin finishes below the strike price. Still, upside for the holder remains unlimited as long as the market moves decisively above $100,000.

Interestingly, Bitcoin’s monthly options expiry in January falls two days after the next

Source: CoinTelegraph