How A Weakening Us Labor Market Is Putting Pressure On Bitcoin And...

Bitcoin has spent the later weeks of November struggling to hold momentum after setting new highs earlier in 2025. At the same time, US labor data has begun to signal a different kind of warning, not a jobs crash but a clear loss of heat.

The US unemployment rate has climbed from the low-3% range seen in 2022-2023 to the mid-4% area, its highest level in several years. Monthly nonfarm payroll gains have slowed from the post-pandemic levels to more modest six-figure additions. Job openings and quits have also drifted down from their 2021-2022 peaks, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) series.

For equities, bonds and foreign exchange, this is familiar territory. Softer labor data tends to prompt fast repricing of growth expectations and central bank policy.

Crypto now sits inside the same macro web. Instead of a simple cause-and-effect narrative, the relationship is better understood this way: Changes in the labor market shift risk appetite and liquidity conditions, and those shifts often show up in Bitcoin (BTC) and broader crypto prices.

Every month, traders around the world stop what they are doing for the U.S. Employment Situation Report, the nonfarm payrolls release compiled by the BLS. The headline numbers are straightforward: how many jobs were added, the unemployment rate, wage growth and participation in the labor force.

Under the surface, this data is a proxy for something bigger: the health of the US consumer and the odds of a recession. Strong job creation and low unemployment suggest households have income to spend and support corporate earnings and credit quality. Weak numbers point the other way.

For macro markets, the jobs print also feeds directly into Federal Reserve expectations. If labor data stay firm while inflation is sticky, investors infer that rates may stay higher for longer. If the unemployment rate rises and payroll growth fades, the argument for rate cuts gains strength.

Crypto now trades in that same ecosystem. Bitcoin and large altcoins are widely held by macro funds, exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and retail traders who also watch stocks and bonds. A softer labor market can therefore have two opposing effects at once:

It raises fears of a slowdown or hard landing, which typically pushes investors out of high-beta assets.

It also increases the probability of easier policy down the line, which can eventually support risk assets through lower yields and looser financi

Source: CoinTelegraph