Is Bitcoin’s 4-year Cycle Broken — And If So, Where To Next?
Analysts are split on whether Bitcoin’s typical four-year cycle has ended in 2025, with institutional ETFs and regulatory shifts cited as key factors.
A wave of institutional crypto participation spurred by exchange-traded funds, an easing of regulations in the US, an increase in global liquidity, and a Federal Reserve leadership change are just some of the reasons why analysts think the typical four-year crypto cycle is broken.
The four-year cycle is tied to Bitcoin (BTC) halving events, which cut miner rewards in half, reducing the supply of new Bitcoin entering circulation.
Historically, this was seen as the catalyst for a predictable pattern: accumulation, a post-halving bull run that peaked around 18 months later, followed by a sharp correction and multi-year bear market.
Some analysts note that Bitcoin’s current price action is playing out exactly as a four-year cycle would, as it has declined 30% from its peak in the year after the halving, and has entered a bearish phase.
Nick Ruck, director of LVRG Research, told Cointelegraph that the halving cycle appeared to start to break down in 2025.
He added the breakdown was driven by sustained institutional demand through ETFs and corporate treasuries that “lessened the expected post-peak crash and reduced volatility compared to prior cycles.”
Earlier in December, Grayscale predicted that Bitcoin would reach a new all-time high in the first half of 2026, citing a growing macro demand due to currency debasement and a supportive regulatory environment in the US.
Standard Chartered's global head of digital assets research, Geoffrey Kendrick, said in early December that the cycle theory was “no longer valid” and halved the bank’s prediction, now saying that Bitcoin will hit $150,000 by the end of 2026.
Other crypto executives, including Ark Invest CEO Cathie Wood, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes, CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju, Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan, and CEO Hunter Horsley and Real Vision founder Raoul Pal, all think that the four-year cycle is a thing of the past.
Source: CoinTelegraph
