Kalshi, Polymarket Traders Bet Supreme Court Will Curb Trump’s...

Prediction markets show waning confidence in Trump’s tariff authority, with both Kalshi and Polymarket traders bracing for limits on executive power.

Prediction markets are signaling declining confidence that the US Supreme Court will rule in favor of President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariff powers, with traders on regulated and crypto-native platforms reducing their exposure following the week’s developments.

US-regulated event-market platform Kalshi showed Thursday that traders now assign a 29% chance that the Supreme Court will side with Trump, a 28-point drop in a single day.

On Polymarket, Kalshi’s onchain competitor, where contracts are settled in USDC (USDC), the odds fell to 25%, reflecting a similar collapse in sentiment.

The combined trading volume across both platforms surpassed $1.3 million, showing that traders participating in prediction markets can provide early indicators of sentiment linked to political and judicial outcomes.

Both markets have been volatile since the Supreme Court agreed to hear the case in September. On Wednesday, the market showed the largest single-day decline since going live.

The price swing implies that traders are increasingly expecting the Supreme Court to limit the scope of presidential authority to impose tariffs under the emergency-powers law. This decision could reshape how US presidents approach fiscal leverage and trade policy.

The alignment between Kalshi and Polymarket odds highlights a growing convergence between traditional and decentralized forecasting markets, where fiat-based and blockchain-based traders interpret political risks through similar lenses of liquidity and probability.

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The sell-offs followed reports that several conservative justices appeared skeptical of Trump’s claim to unilaterally impose broad import duties using emergency powers.

Source: CoinTelegraph