Latest Is It A Bubble?

Ours is a remarkable moment in world history. A transformative technology is ascending, and its supporters claim it will forever change the world. To build it requires companies to invest a sum of money unlike anything in living memory. News reports are filled with widespread fears that America’s biggest corporations are propping up a bubble that will soon pop.

During my visits to clients in Asia and the Middle East last month, I was often asked about the possibility of a bubble surrounding artificial intelligence, and my discussions gave rise to this memo. I want to start off with my usual caveats: I’m not active in the stock market; I merely watch it as the best barometer of investor psychology. I’m also no techie, and I don’t know any more about AI than most generalist investors. But I’ll do my best.

One of the most interesting aspects of bubbles is their regularity, not in terms of timing, but rather the progression they follow. Something new and seemingly revolutionary appears and worms its way into people’s minds. It captures their imagination, and the excitement is overwhelming. The early participants enjoy huge gains. Those who merely look on feel incredible envy and regret and – motivated by the fear of continuing to miss out – pile in. They do this without knowledge of what the future will bring or concern about whether the price they’re paying can possibly be expected to produce a reasonable return with a tolerable amount of risk. The end result for investors is inevitably painful in the short to medium term, although it’s possible to end up ahead after enough years have passed.

I’ve lived through several bubbles and read about others, and they’ve all hewed to this description. One might think the losses experienced when past bubbles popped would discourage the next one from forming. But that hasn’t happened yet, and I’m sure it never will. Memories are short, and prudence and natural risk aversion are no match for the dream of getting rich on the back of a revolutionary technology that “everyone knows” will change the world.

I took the quote that opens this memo from Derek Thompson’s November 4 newsletter entitled “AI Could Be the Railroad of the 21st Century. Brace Yourself,” about parallels between what’s going on today in AI and the railroad boom of the 1860s. Its word-for-word applicability to both shows clearly what’s meant by the phrase widely attributed to Mark Twain: “history rhymes.”

Before diving into the subject

Source: HackerNews