Crypto: Latest Is The Bitcoin-versus-gold Chart Completely Broken? 2026

Bitcoin dropped below levels that historically marked cycle bottoms versus gold and preceded major rallies in dollar terms.

For years, Bitcoin (BTC) traders have watched its price relative to gold (XAU) for clues on when BTC bottoms in US dollar terms. But in 2026, that BTC-to-gold signal is starting to look less dependable.

Bitcoin hits undervaluation versus gold and has slipped below its Power Law trend.

BTC/XAU is already under the 200-2W EMA that historically lined up with bottoms.

Gold’s next move likely dictates whether BTC gets a relief rally.

This week, the BTC/XAU ratio, or the value of Bitcoin versus gold, drifted away from its long-term “Power Law” trend for the first time in history, as highlighted by analyst Julius.

A Power Law is a long-term trend curve that some analysts use to model Bitcoin’s growth path over time. In trading terms, it can flag potential overvaluation when the price stretches above the curve, and possible undervaluation when it slips below.

As of January, BTC/XAU was at its most undervalued stage. It reached those levels as gold surged past the record $5,000 mark and markets turned risk-off due to yen intervention and US government shutdown fears.

That also occurred when most Wall Street firms predicted gold to rally further in 2026, including Bank of America, which said last week that the precious metal would cross above $6,000 by the year’s end.

In contrast, Bitcoin markets showed concerns over the four-year-cycle theory. As it notes, BTC price topped out at around $126,200 in October 2025, and could decline below $50,000 in the coming months.

Source: CoinTelegraph