Market Bitcoin-to-gold Ratio Fell 50% In 2025: ’s Why

Gold strongly outperformed Bitcoin in 2025, resulting in a 50% decline in the BTC-to-gold ratio. Will the trend flip in BTC’s favor in 2026?

The Bitcoin-to-gold ratio, which highlights the ounces of gold required to purchase one BTC, has retraced to 20 ounces per BTC, down roughly 50% from around 40 ounces in December 2024. Rather than a collapse in Bitcoin (BTC) demand, this sharp shift reflected the unique macroeconomic regime of 2025, where gold’s asset performance dominated that of the crypto asset.

The BTC–gold ratio fell from 40 to 20 ounces per BTC between December 2024 and Q4 2025.

Gold absorbed sustained inflows as central banks bought 254 tonnes through October, and global gold ETF holdings increased by 397 tonnes in H1 2025.

Bitcoin demand softened in H2 as spot ETFs’ AUM declined to $112 billion from $152 billion, while long-term holders sold over 500,000 BTC.

Gold led the global store-of-value bid in 2025, delivering a year-to-date (YTD) gain of 63% and breaking above $4,000 per ounce in Q4. What made this rally distinct was that it unfolded despite restrictive monetary conditions.

The rise took place while US interest rates remained restrictive for most of the year, with the Federal Reserve delivering its first basis-point cut only in September. Historically, such an environment would pressure non-yielding assets, yet gold advanced sharply, highlighting a structural shift in demand.

Central banks were at the core of this move. Global official sector purchases totaled 254 tonnes through October, with the National Bank of Poland leading the charge by adding 83 tonnes. At the same time, Global gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) holdings expanded by 397 tonnes in H1 2025, reaching a record high of 3,932 tonnes by November.

This was a significant reversal of the 2023 outflow pattern. This inflow occurred despite real yields averaging 1.8% across developed markets in Q2, during which gold still rallied 23%, signaling a clear decoupling from its traditional inverse relationship with yields.

Elevated uncertainty further reinforced gold’s appeal. The VIX (Volatility Index) averaged 18.2 in 2025, up from 14.3 in 2024, while geopolitical risk indexes climbed 34% year-over-year. Gold’s equity beta compressed to negative 0.12, its lowest since 2008, confirming demand from both risk-off hedging and long-term allocation.

Source: CoinTelegraph