Metric Suggests Bitcoin Has Been In A Bear Market For 2 Months

Based on Bitcoin's realized price and past performance, CryptoQuant’s Julio Moreno predicts that Bitcoin will bottom around $56,000 to $60,000 in 2026.

Bitcoin may already be two months into a bear market, according to certain metrics such as the one-year moving average, says CryptoQuant’s head of research.

During an episode of the Milk Road show on Thursday, CryptoQuant’s Julio Moreno said most of the metrics he uses for the bull score index turned bearish in early November and have yet to recover.

The index measures market conditions using indicators like network activity, investor profitability, Bitcoin demand, and liquidity, and ranges from 0 to 100.

A one-year moving average is the average price of an asset over 12 months, and used to show long-term trends.

The price of Bitcoin (BTC) started 2025 at around $93,000 and peaked at $126,080 in October before ending the year lower than it began, according to crypto data aggregator CoinGecko.

If Bitcoin is in a bear market, it goes against many analyst predictions that see 2026 as a growth year for Bitcoin.

Past crypto bear markets have seen significant drawdowns across the sector, and can take years for prices to recover.

Bitcoin is trading around $88,543 as of Friday; however, Moreno predicts that over the coming year, the bear market bottom will likely be in the $56,000 to $60,000 range, based on Bitcoin’s realized price and past performance.

“Historically, what happened in previous bear markets, you see the price coming down to what is called the realized price, which is basically the average price at which the holders of Bitcoin purchased their Bitcoin,” Moreno said.

Source: CoinTelegraph