Crypto: Polymarket Sees January Us Gov't Shutdown Odds Surge To 77% 2026

The spike in Polymarket odds comes just days after United States President Donald Trump said “we’re probably going to end up in another Democrat shutdown.”

Polymarket betters are pricing in a 77% chance that the US government will shut down again before the end of January, marking a 67% increase over the past 24 hours.

It comes as the CLARITY Act, a significant crypto bill aimed at providing more clarity around regulations, is still making its way through Congress, with previous delays largely blamed on the record 43-day US government shutdown in October and November.

Political commentator Collin Rugg highlighted the surging Polymarket odds in an X post on Saturday, noting that it came shortly after US Senator Chuck Schumer announced that Senate Democrats would not “provide the votes to proceed” to the appropriations bill if funding for the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) is included.

"What's happening in Minnesota is appalling —and unacceptable in any American city," Schumer said in a statement.

On Saturday morning, reports emerged that US federal agents shot and killed a 37-year-old man in Minneapolis.

Schumer said that the DHS bill is “woefully inadequate to rein in the abuses of ICE. I will vote no."

US President Donald Trump didn’t rule out the chances of another government shutdown at some point, telling Fox Business on Thursday: “I think we have a problem, because I think we’re probably going to end up in another Democrat shutdown.”

It adds uncertainty around the CLARITY Act’s timeline, which has recently received a mixed response from the crypto industry after Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong and other executives withdrew support.

“This version would be materially worse than the current status quo. We’d rather have no bill than a bad bill. Hopefully we can all get to a better draft,” Armstrong said on Jan. 15.

Source: CoinTelegraph