Prediction Markets Bet Bitcoin Won’t Reach $100k Before Year’s End

Bitcoin bull market optimism has suffered since the Oct. 10 crash, as chances of a short-term BTC price rally above $100,000 appeared to be fading.

Bitcoin (BTC) could remain pinned below $100,000 for the remainder of 2025 as the market weakened following the US Fed rate cut decision on Wednesday.

BTC price has only a 30% chance of hitting $100,000 before Jan. 1, according to prediction markets.

Bitcoin treasury buying has slowed significantly, hindering short-term recovery attempts.

Bitcoin faces resistance at $94,000, with an ascending triangle breakout possible to the $98,000 liquidity zone.

The majority of traders on Polymarket and Kalshi expect Bitcoin to remain below the $100,000 mark for the next 21 days.

As of Dec. 11, Kalshi bettors are pricing in about 34% odds of BTC crossing $100,000 before Dec. 31. Polymarket sets 29% odds of BTC touching $100,000 before the end of 2025.

Bitcoin’s high for December sits at $94,600, reached on Tuesday, and the last time the BTC/USD pair traded above $100,000 was on Nov. 13.

Related: Bitcoin due 2026 bottom as exchange volumes grind lower: Analysis

Several factors have capped Bitcoin’s rebound attempts in the short term, including growing macroeconomic uncertainties and a slowdown in Bitcoin treasury buys.

Source: CoinTelegraph