Quantum Computing In 2026: No Crypto Doomsday, But Time To Prepare

Quantum computing won’t break Bitcoin in 2026, but the growing practice of “harvest now, decrypt later” is pushing the crypto industry to prepare sooner rather than later.

Quantum computing has long been viewed as a threat to cryptocurrencies, a technology that could one day crack the cryptography securing Bitcoin and other blockchains. In 2026, that fear is resurfacing as major tech firms accelerate quantum research and investment.

While the technology is not yet ready for widespread use, the pace of investment and experimentation has gained traction. In February, Microsoft unveiled its Majorana 1 chip, which the company dubbed “the world’s first quantum chip powered by a new Topological Core architecture,” rekindling debate about how quickly quantum hardware might move from research into real-world systems.

However, despite growing attention, most experts say the risk to crypto remains theoretical, not imminent. The real concern, they argue, is not a sudden cryptographic collapse next year, but what attackers are already doing today to prepare for a post-quantum future.

Clark Alexander, co-founder and head of AI at Argentum AI, told Cointelegraph that he expects quantum computing to find “extremely limited commercial use” in 2026.

Nic Puckrin, crypto analyst and co-founder of Coin Bureau, was more blunt. “The whole ‘quantum threat to Bitcoin’ narrative is 90% marketing and 10% imminent threat… we’re almost certainly at least a decade away from computers that can actually break existing cryptography,” he said.

Bitcoin (BTC) and most major blockchain networks rely on public-key cryptography to secure wallets and authorize transactions. Private keys sign transactions, public keys verify them, and hash functions secure the ledger. If a future quantum machine can derive private keys from public keys, funds could theoretically be stolen at scale.

Related: Willy Woo says Bitcoin OGs will buy Satoshi’s stash if a quantum hack occurs

The issue has even reached US regulators. In September, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC)’s crypto task force received a proposal warning that quantum computing could eventually break the encryption protecting Bitcoin and other digital assets.

At the technical level, consensus among cryptographers is that signatures are the weakest link. “Any cryptographic system whose security relies on a mathematical problem that Shor’s algorithm can efficiently solve (difficulty of factoring large semiprimes),” said Sofiia K

Source: CoinTelegraph