Rare Bitcoin Futures Signal Could Catch Traders Off-guard: Is A...

Bitcoin futures flip negative for the first time since March as internal flows surge and the market downturn deepens.

The Bitcoin futures-to-spot basis has fallen into negative territory, signaling a significant shift in trader sentiment toward de-risking. Futures are now trading below the spot price for the first time since March, erasing the premium that typically reflects strong demand for leverage.

This transition into a futures discount phase suggested that Bitcoin (BTC) traders are increasingly unwilling to take on risk, instead pricing BTC’s short-term outlook lower.

Bitcoin futures–spot basis turns negative, signaling caution and de-risking among traders.

Internal exchange flows surges have historically marked volatility and liquidity stress for BTC.

A negative basis often emerges during periods of position unwinding or when markets are preparing for volatility. BTC is currently trading within the “Base Zone”, a range associated with heavier selling pressure or reduced exposure. Both the seven-day and 30-day moving averages are trending downward, confirming a bearish tilt in the futures market.

However, the historical pattern complicates the picture. Since August 2023, every instance of the seven-day SMA turning negative has coincided with a bottom-formation range during bull phases. If the market has not fully transitioned into a bear cycle, this could again serve as an early recovery marker.

If conditions resemble those of January 2022, the signal may instead mark the beginning of a deeper downturn. A return above the 0%–0.5% basis range would be the first sign of renewed confidence.

Data also showed the BTC-USDT futures leverage ratio resetting toward 0.3, signaling that the market’s previously overheated leverage from Q2–Q3 has finally cooled. A lower ratio reflects reduced forced-liquidation risk and a healthier futures structure.

If bullish momentum returns, this cleaner leverage backdrop could act as a positive catalyst by giving traders room to re-risk without the fragility seen earlier in the year.

Source: CoinTelegraph