Three Things That Must Happen For Bitcoin To Avoid The Bear Market

Bitcoin must hold above its 200-week EMA, await Fed’s stealth QE, and see US liquidity return post-shutdown to avoid a deeper bear market.

Bitcoin’s bull structure remains intact as long as it holds above a key trendline.

Fed liquidity and US fiscal policy will likely decide Bitcoin’s next major move.

Bitcoin (BTC) tumbled more than 8% this week, slipping below the $100,000 mark for the first time since June as long-term holders offloaded roughly $45 billion worth of BTC.

The sell-off intensified amid sharp declines in AI-related stocks, which fueled a broader risk-off shift across markets.

Data resource The Kobeissei Letter said that BTC has “officially entered a bear market territory” after correcting by around 20% from its record high on Oct. 6.

Nevertheless, some indicators suggest BTC can still avoid a full-blown bear market, but several things must happen first.

Bitcoin continues to trade above its 200-week exponential moving average (EMA), currently near $100,950, a key long-term support that has defined every major correction since late 2023.

Each time BTC has tested this level following strong rallies, it has rebounded sharply to set new highs, confirming the EMA as the market’s structural floor, as shown below.

The current drawdown of 22% finds the BTC/USD trading pair defending the same wave support on the chart above.

Source: CoinTelegraph