Vaneck Says Policy Clarity Could Make Q1 A ‘risk-on’ Quarter (2026)

VanEck expects stronger risk appetite in Q1 on improved fiscal and monetary visibility, while warning that Bitcoin’s cycle signals remain mixed.

Global investment management firm VanEck is confident that the first three months of the year will be a risk-on environment for investors, citing clarity around fiscal policy, monetary direction, and major investment themes.

“As we move into 2026, markets are operating in an environment with something investors have not had in years: visibility,” stated VanEck in a Q1 2026 Outlook on Tuesday.

However, regarding Bitcoin (BTC), it stated that the typical four-year cycle “broke in 2025, complicating short-term signals.”

“This divergence supports a more cautious near-term outlook over the next 3–6 months,” it stated, noting that this outlook was not unanimous, with some company executives “remaining more constructive on the immediate cycle.”

A risk-on outlook is generally good news for riskier investments such as AI and tech stocks, and crypto. However, Bitcoin has decoupled from stock and gold markets in recent months following the massive deleveraging event in October.

“One of the most important developments for markets is the gradual improvement in the US fiscal picture,” VanEck stated.

“While deficits remain elevated, they are shrinking as a percentage of GDP from the historic highs reached during the COVID period,” they added.

Related: What the Fed’s divided 2026 outlook means for Bitcoin and crypto

The VanEck outlook is more medium-term than focused on immediate events, Justin d'Anethan, head of research at Arctic Digital, told Cointelegraph.

Source: CoinTelegraph