Why Luke Gromen Is Fading Bitcoin While Staying Bullish On Debasement

Luke Gromen still backs debasement but is trimming Bitcoin risk as BTC lags gold, trends weaken and quantum headlines weigh on sentiment.

Luke Gromen still believes governments will rely on inflation and weaker currencies to manage heavy debt.

He is more cautious on Bitcoin in the short term and sees a possible move toward the $40,000 range in 2026.

His main red flags are Bitcoin lagging gold, trend damage on key moving averages and “quantum risk” headlines weighing on sentiment.

The takeaway is process-driven: Track the BTC-to-gold ratio, a simple trend filter and ETF flows instead of copying anyone’s trades.

Luke Gromen is a global macro analyst. He founded FFTT (Forest For The Trees) in early 2014 and publishes macro research for investors, including his Tree Rings product.

His core thesis is the “debasement trade.” In simple terms, when a country carries too much debt, it can make that burden easier to manage by allowing inflation to run and letting the currency lose purchasing power over time. This dynamic pushes some investors toward assets that are harder to create in unlimited supply, such as gold and, for many years, Bitcoin.

As of December 2025, Gromen has not abandoned the debasement view. What has changed, however, is his short-term outlook on Bitcoin (BTC).

On the RiskReversal podcast, he said BTC looks weak enough that a move toward the $40,000 range in 2026 is possible. He also described Bitcoin as a position that can be scaled down as conditions deteriorate and said gold and some equities currently express the debasement theme better than BTC.

He points to a few practical warning signs: Bitcoin lagging gold, breaks below key moving averages and growing discussion around quantum risk.

Source: CoinTelegraph