Crypto: Bitcoin Bear Market May End If Bulls Reclaim $74.5k: ’s Why 2026
Bitcoin trades below most holders’ cost basis, but a rally above $74,500 could change everything. Can the bulls pull it off?
Bitcoin (BTC) has rebounded 7.45% over the past two days after dropping to $62,400 on Tuesday, below a key onchain price support. Despite the bounce, holders who bought between six months and two years ago remain at an average cost of $74,500, a level that now stands as a potential inflection level.
As BTC moves higher, the concentration of supply around $74,500 stands as a key test for the current trend; a decisive reclaim of that level may signal demand and a shift in short-term market structure.
Bitcoin’s realized price tracks the average onchain acquisition cost for a given UTXO age band. For coins aged 18 to 24 months, that level stands near $64,200.
Crypto analyst Anıl noted that Bitcoin tested this threshold and reclaimed it by the daily close on Tuesday, keeping the zone intact for now.
Cost basis levels act as psychological pivots and when the price trades below them, investors face unrealized losses and the risk of distribution increases. A sustained position above the band tends to reduce investor stress and encourages BTC re-accumulation.
Expanding the lens to BTC UTXOs aged six months to two years captures investors from the prior cycle’s consolidation and breakout phases. The realized price for these cohorts is near $74,500, which is well above the current price.
The cohort’s MVRV ratio, which compares market value to realized value, now sits at 0.88. A reading below 1 signals that the group is, on average, holding at a loss.
As Bitcoin fell below $74,500, investors who bought between six months and two years ago moved into unrealized losses, turning that level into an important profitability threshold.
A sustained move back above $74,500 places much of this group back in aggregate profit, which may ease sell-side pressure from holders looking to exit near their breakeven price.
Source: CoinTelegraph
